Friday, July 21, 2006

One lone lunatic...

It is often said, "A billion Chinese can't be wrong." Based on the Law of Large Numbers, it's fairly accurate. But not always and less often than people think.

It all starts with one guy. One guy makes a discovery and tells everyone, but nobody believes him. After all, he's only one guy and a billion Chinese can't be wrong. But over time, this guy convinces a select few and when he dies there are a hundred people who understand the discovery. This group goes out and talks to people but they're dismissed as fanatics of the one guy, because...a billion Chinese can't be wrong. Over time this small group convinces a greater number and when that hundred dies there are now a hundred thousand who understand the discovery. This larger group is extremely diverse: ethnically, religiously, economically, by gender... This group has advanced the discovery and understands much more than that one original guy. They go out and actively proselytize to the world at large, trying to use their superior insight to sway others to the new discovery.

But few listen because, don't forget, a billion Chinese can't be wrong.

Over time this hundred thousand becomes a hundred million and suddenly they are a billion--they are the masses and theirs is the common knowledge. And then some guy comes along to challenge the belief, but no one listens, because he's just one guy...and a billion Chinese can't be wrong.

Before it ever becomes a billion, it's one lone lunatic with a discovery that no one wants to accept...because a billion Chinese can't be wrong.